The Productive Capacity Supercycle

Capital is returning to the physical world — to the machines, the energy, and the industrial power through which nations act.

An ongoing argument about the return of productive capacity as the primary determinant of economic power, technological progress, and national strength. Published in public, installment by installment, and intended to be read as a whole.

The Argument

One continuous argument, built in public and meant to be read as a whole. Each installment is a chapter.

  1. I

    Published · September 2026

    The Productive Capacity Supercycle

    Every era of capitalism assigns capital a center of gravity. Ours has moved — and the movement is cyclical.

  2. II

    In preparation

    Category Foresight

    How categories are anticipated before consensus can name them.

  3. III

    In preparation

    Structural Mispricing

    Why markets misprice companies whose demand is written in national budgets.

  4. The argument continues as the work develops.

Notes

Research notes, historical discoveries, books, charts, and field observations surrounding the central argument.

  • A First Note

    A placeholder note — replace with real short-form observations.

All notes →

Foundations

Earlier writing, arranged by intellectual lineage rather than chronology.

Library

The primary sources the argument is built on — arranged by theme, not chronology.

Books · Papers · Government reports · Historical documents · Speeches · Technical publications

Enter the Library →

About

What I study. The return of capital to the productive economy — defense, space, energy, autonomy, and the industrial substrate of intelligence.

Why the work exists. To think in public as the shift happens, and to keep a permanent record of the argument as it is built.

Why these ideas matter. Because the return of productive capacity will reorganize where power and prosperity are created — and reading it early is the task.

New installments are sent by letter as they are published.

Ideas are developed here.

New York · MMXXVI